Warsh's First Call
The September FOMC is Chair Warsh's first meeting as Chair. 85% is basically 100%. Oh, and housing data.
Wednesday brings the September FOMC. Chair Warsh's very first dot plot, if he does one. The target range has held at 3.50%–3.75% for five straight meetings, but the last hold drew three dissents wanting a hike, and markets now price one this week.
The 30-year fixed sat at 6.76% last week, up 41 bps from a year ago and its highest in more than a year. If the Fed hikes, mortgage costs have little room to ease.
Builder confidence has held below 40 for 16 straight months. July starts fell to their lowest since 2022 and pending sales to their lowest since January. August starts, permits, and pending sales all land Thursday.
| Date | Release | Result / Preview | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Sep 167:00 AM | MBA Weekly Applications Survey · Wk ended Sep 11 MBA |
Prior (wk ended Sep 4): Composite -2.7% w/w (SA), -4% unadjusted. Refi -6% w/w, -25% y/y. Purchase -0.2% w/w (SA), +4% y/y. MBA 30-year contract rate 6.85%, highest since June 2025, +36 bps y/y. | Upcoming |
| Wed Sep 1610:00 AM | NAHB Housing Market Index · Sep NAHB |
Consensus (Sep): 34. Prior (Aug): 35, up 1 pt m/m; 16th straight month below 40. Current sales 39, future expectations 43, buyer traffic 23. 35% of builders cut prices in August, average reduction 6%. | Upcoming |
| Wed Sep 162:00 PM | FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference Federal Reserve |
Rate decision 2:00 PM ET; Chair Warsh's first press conference 2:30 PM, with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. Target range held at 3.50%–3.75% for five straight meetings; the July 29 hold drew three dissents preferring a 25 bp hike. Markets are pricing a possible hike at this meeting. | Headline |
| Thu Sep 178:30 AM | Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims · Wk ended Sep 12 DOL |
Prior (wk ended Sep 5): initial claims 206K, roughly flat w/w (prior week revised to 207K); 4-week average 206,000. Continuing claims 1.774M (wk ended Aug 29), -1K w/w; insured unemployment rate 1.2%. | Upcoming |
| Thu Sep 178:30 AM | Housing Starts & Building Permits · Aug Census/HUD |
Consensus (Aug): starts +6.9% m/m, permits -1.5% m/m. Prior (Jul): starts 1.239M SAAR, -12.4% m/m, -13.5% y/y (single-family 808K, lowest since Nov 2022); permits 1.443M SAAR, +5.0% m/m, +3.1% y/y. | Upcoming |
| Thu Sep 1710:00 AM | NAR Pending Home Sales · Aug NAR |
Consensus (Aug): +0.4% m/m. Prior (Jul): index 71.2, -2.3% m/m, -2.2% y/y; lowest since January 2026, with all four regions down m/m. | Upcoming |
| Thu Sep 1712:00 PM | Freddie Mac PMMS · Wk ended Sep 17 Freddie Mac |
Prior (wk ended Sep 10): 30-year fixed 6.76%, +5 bps w/w (from 6.71%); +41 bps y/y (6.35% a year ago); highest in more than a year. | Upcoming |
With the Fed decision behind us, the next stretch is lighter. Then quarter-end reloads the calendar with home prices, GDP, PCE, and the September jobs report.
Want more? For a deeper dive on what these numbers might mean, check out the Metz Market Minute.
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