The Cooldown Comes to a Head
A week of soft labor data — JOLTS steady, ADP at a seven-month low, job cuts rising — sets up Friday's jobs report, the one print that matters.
July's -23K, the "first decline since 2020" that spooked everyone last month, was revised to +21K. Then August printed +162K, nearly triple the +58K consensus and the strongest since March. The cooldown was real, but the crack never came.
The 30-year fixed rose to 6.71%, its highest in more than a year and up 21 bps from a year ago. Purchase apps ticked up 2%, but refis slipped again and the refi share fell to 41.8%. Borrowers are still waiting for a break that hasn't come.
Two weeks out from Chair Warsh's first FOMC, the labor market looks steadier than the ADP miss suggested: payrolls up 162K, unemployment holding at 4.1%, wages up 3.1% y/y. A hotter print gives the doves less to work with heading into September 16.
| Date | Release | Result / Preview | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Sep 110:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings · Jul BLS |
Openings 7.27M, about in line with the ~7.3M consensus and little changed m/m. Quits 3.1M; layoffs 1.7M, a six-month low. Roughly 1.1 openings per unemployed. Manufacturing vacancies highest since Dec 2023. | Released |
| Tue Sep 110:00 AM | Construction Spending · Jul Census/HUD |
Total -0.5% m/m (SAAR $2.16T) vs a flat (0.0%) consensus; -3.8% y/y, near a three-year low. Public construction -0.2% m/m. | Released |
| Wed Sep 27:00 AM | MBA Weekly Applications Survey · Wk ended Aug 28 MBA |
Composite +0.8% w/w. Purchase +2% w/w; Refi -1% w/w (-19% y/y). Refi share 41.8% (from 42.0%). 30-year contract rate 6.79% (from 6.78%), near one-year highs. | Released |
| Wed Sep 28:15 AM | ADP National Employment · Aug ADP |
Private payrolls +38K vs +46K consensus; July revised up to +46K. Smallest gain since January. Education/health services +45K led; manufacturing -17K and professional/business services -16K. Annual pay growth ~4.7% y/y. | Miss |
| Wed Sep 22:00 PM | Beige Book · Sep Federal Reserve |
Activity up modestly since July; 10 of 12 districts reported slight-to-moderate growth, two flat. Employment rose very slightly; prices up moderately in eight districts. Residential construction declined on balance; data-center demand a notable growth driver. | Released |
| Thu Sep 35:30 AM | Challenger Job Cuts · Aug Challenger, Gray & Christmas |
Announced cuts 52,881, up from 33,429 in July for a three-month high. Tech and AI-related reductions again prominent. | Released |
| Thu Sep 38:30 AM | Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims · Wk ended Aug 29 DOL |
Initial claims 206K, +2K w/w (prior revised up to 204K); 4-week average 207,250. Continuing claims 1.779M (wk ended Aug 22), +8K w/w; insured unemployment rate 1.2%. Claims still near the low end of the 2026 range. | Released |
| Thu Sep 312:00 PM | Freddie Mac PMMS · Wk ended Sep 3 Freddie Mac |
30-year fixed 6.71%, +5 bps w/w (from 6.66%) and +21 bps y/y (6.50% a year ago). Highest in more than a year. | Released |
| Fri Sep 48:30 AM | Employment Situation / Nonfarm Payrolls · Aug BLS |
Payrolls +162K vs ~58K consensus, nearly triple and the strongest since March. Unemployment 4.1%, unchanged. Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y. The revisions stole the show: July flipped from -23K to +21K and June rose to +31K, a combined +55K, erasing the "first decline since 2020" scare. Food services (+59K) and local government education (+42K) led; information -23K. | Beat |
After jobs week clears, inflation takes over. The Labor Day–shortened week builds to back-to-back price reports — PPI Thursday, CPI Friday — the last major inflation reads before the September FOMC. Existing home sales and a first look at September sentiment round it out.
Want more? For a deeper dive on what these numbers might mean, check out the Metz Market Minute.
The Market Minute