Inflation week: CPI & PPI

CPI & PPI this week for inflationary measures. Since we know the Fed was split on rate hikes based off inflation, it becomes even more important.

Metz's Takeaways 30-second read

Both inflation reads came in soft

June CPI fell 0.4% and PPI fell 0.3%, both cooler than consensus, with CPI posting its biggest monthly drop since April 2020. Energy did much of the work, but core held too. Michigan's year-ahead inflation expectations also eased, to 4.2% from 4.6%. With the June minutes showing a split Fed, the disinflation reads make the hawkish case harder to carry into July 29.

Housing: soft demand, a supply bounce

The demand signals stayed weak: builder confidence fell to 34, a 15th straight month under 40, and Pending Home Sales dropped 5.4% across all four regions. But Starts rebounded 19% to a 1.427M pace, beating expectations after May's plunge. Buyers are pulling back on the highest rates in nearly a year while builders keep breaking ground.

The table is set for July 29

This was the last full inflation and housing read before the FOMC. The Beige Book described only slight-to-moderate growth with businesses deferring investment, and consumer sentiment, though up sharply off a low base, still sits 12% below a year ago. GDP and PCE land the morning after the decision, but the case the Fed walks in with was largely written this week.

This Week

JUL 13 — JUL 17

Date	Release	Result / Preview	Status
Tue Jul 148:30 AM	CPI · June BLS	Headline -0.4% m/m (SA), the biggest monthly drop since April 2020, and +3.5% y/y, down from 4.2% in May. Core 0.0% m/m, +2.6% y/y. A 5.7% drop in energy drove the decline, outweighing shelter and food. Cooler than the -0.1% m/m consensus.	Beat
Wed Jul 157:00 AM	MBA Weekly Applications · Wk ending Jul 10 MBA	Composite -2.7% w/w (SA). Refi +4% w/w, +7% y/y; refi share up to 43.2% from 40.6%. Purchase -7% w/w, -2% y/y. 30-yr contract rate 6.65%, highest since August 2025.	Released
Wed Jul 158:30 AM	PPI · June BLS	Headline -0.3% m/m (SA), +5.5% y/y, versus 0.0% consensus. Core (less foods, energy, and trade services) +0.1% m/m, +5.1% y/y, versus +0.3% consensus. Final-demand goods -1.4% on falling energy; services +0.2%. Cooler than expected on both lines.	Beat
Wed Jul 152:00 PM	Beige Book Federal Reserve	Activity slight-to-moderate; most Districts reported little-to-no change in employment and modest-to-moderate wage growth. Prices rose moderately, with contacts citing high fuel and transportation costs and rising petrochemical inputs. Many businesses deferred investment amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.	Released
Thu Jul 168:30 AM	Initial Jobless Claims DOL	Initial 208K, down 8K from a revised 216K; four-week average 214,250. Continuing claims 1.805M (week ending Jul 4), down 16K. Insured unemployment rate steady at 1.2%.	Released
Thu Jul 1610:00 AM	NAHB Housing Market Index · July NAHB	HMI 34, below the 35 consensus and a 15th straight month under 40. Current sales 37, six-month expectations 43, buyer traffic 23. Price cuts at 37% of builders (avg 6%); incentives at 63%.	Miss
Thu Jul 1610:00 AM	NAR Pending Home Sales · June NAR	Index -5.4% m/m to 72.5, versus 0.0% consensus; -0.3% y/y. All four regions down, led by the Midwest -8.9% and West -4.7%. Highest rates in nearly a year and a record median price weighing on signings.	Miss
Thu Jul 1612:00 PM	Freddie Mac PMMS Freddie Mac	30-year fixed 6.55%, up from 6.49% a week ago; 6.75% a year ago. First rate read after CPI and PPI.	Released
Fri Jul 178:30 AM	Housing Starts & Building Permits · June Census / HUD	Starts +19.0% m/m to 1.427M SAAR (from 1.199M revised May), well above the 1.320M consensus and a sharp rebound off May's plunge. Permits -0.9% to 1.410M; single-family permits +1.2% to 892K, multifamily -4.7%.	Beat
Fri Jul 1710:00 AM	Michigan Sentiment Preliminary · July University of Michigan	Sentiment 54.4, above the 51.0 consensus and up 9.9% m/m from 49.5, the highest since February. All five components rose, led by durables-buying and expected business conditions. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.2% from 4.6%; long-run held at 3.3%.	Beat

Data Sources BLS · MBA · Federal Reserve · DOL · NAHB · NAR · Freddie Mac · Census/HUD · UMich

Upcoming

JUL 20 — JUL 31

A quieter start to the following week, then it all lands at once: New Home Sales Jul 24, the month-end HPI duo and Confidence Jul 28, and a loaded Jul 29-30 with the FOMC decision (Warsh) followed the next morning by Q2 GDP and June PCE.

Next Week

Jul 20 — Jul 24

Jul 24 New Home Sales · June

Jul 28 Case-Shiller HPI · May

Jul 28 FHFA House Price Index · May

Jul 28 Conference Board Consumer Confidence · July

Also on the horizon

Jul 29 — Jul 31

Jul 29 FOMC Rate Decision (Warsh)

Jul 30 GDP Q2 Advance

Jul 30 PCE Price Index · June

Jul 31 Michigan Sentiment Final · July

Want more? For a deeper dive on what these numbers might mean, check out the Metz Market Minute.

The Market Minute