June brings jobs

Jobs and acronyms! JOLTS, ADP, ISM & NFP. Nine releases in five days.

Metz's Takeaways 30-second read

Friday's the fun day

NFP will likely move things. Consensus +90K vs April's +115K. The slowdown is expected but Fed-relevant. An important reading before Warsh.

Three labor previews before Friday

JOLTS Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, Challenger Thursday, then NFP on Friday. Last month's pattern: ADP (109K) understated NFP (115K).

Manufacturing vs. Services

ISM Manufacturing Monday and ISM Services Wednesday. Both showed calming prior. The Prices Paid sub-index in both is what mortgage rates care about.

This Week

JUN 1 — JUN 5

Date	Release	Result / Preview	Status
Mon Jun 110:00 AM	ISM Manufacturing PMI · May ISM	Consensus 53.1. Prices Paid index may be fun.	Upcoming
Mon Jun 110:00 AM	Construction Spending · April Census	Consensus +0.1% m/m. Prior March: $2,185.5B SAAR (+0.6% m/m, beat).	Upcoming
Tue Jun 210:00 AM	JOLTS Job Openings · April BLS	Consensus 6,840K. Prior March: 6.866M (Beat). Watch quits rate — Powell-cited.	Upcoming
Wed Jun 37:00 AM	MBA Weekly Applications · Wk ending May 29 MBA	Prior week (May 22): -8.5% composite, 30-yr 6.65%. Refi share 37.5%.	Upcoming
Wed Jun 38:15 AM	ADP Employment · May ADP	Consensus 118K. Prior April: 109K. ADP's read 2 days before NFP.	Upcoming
Wed Jun 310:00 AM	ISM Services PMI · May ISM	Consensus 53.8. Prior April: 53.6 (Miss). Prices Paid was 70.7 last month (hottest since 2022).	Upcoming
Thu Jun 45:30 AM	Challenger Gray & Christmas Job Cuts · May Challenger Gray & Christmas	Prior April: 83.4K (Miss). Down 21% YoY despite the m/m surge.	Upcoming
Thu Jun 48:30 AM	Initial Jobless Claims DOL	Prior 215K. 4-week average 209K. Range-bound 190-230K all year.	Upcoming
Thu Jun 412:00 PM	Freddie Mac PMMS Freddie Mac	Last week 6.53%. Up from 6.51% prior. Year ago: 6.86%.	Upcoming
Fri Jun 58:30 AM	Employment Situation / NFP · May BLS	Consensus +90K. UNR steady at 4.3%. AHE +0.3% m/m. Prior April +115K (Beat).	Headline

Data Sources BLS · MBA · Freddie Mac · ADP · ISM · Census · DOL · Challenger Gray & Christmas

Upcoming

JUN 9 — JUN 18

Inflation week next: CPI Tuesday Jun 10, PPI Wednesday Jun 11. Then jumping to FOMC week (Jun 17) — Warsh's first chair meeting. Big.

Next Week

Jun 9 — Jun 12

Jun 9 NAR Existing Home Sales · May

Jun 10 CPI · May

Jun 10 Core CPI · May

Jun 11 MBA Weekly Applications

Jun 11 PPI · May

Jun 11 Initial Jobless Claims

Jun 12 Michigan Sentiment Preliminary · June

Also on the horizon

Jun 15 — Jun 18

Jun 15 NAHB Housing Market Index · June

Jun 16 Housing Starts & Building Permits · May

Jun 17 Retail Sales · May

Jun 17 NAR Pending Home Sales · May

Jun 17 FOMC Rate Decision (Warsh's first)

Want more? For a deeper dive on what these numbers might mean, check out the Metz Market Minute.