Fed Week
Lots of stuff, but all anyone is watching is The Fed.
The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00%, but not unanimously. Cook and Hammack voted for a 25 bp hike, and the statement now calls activity strong. Mortgage rates eased anyway: Freddie Mac’s 30-year fell to 7.24%, its lowest this month.
Core PCE rose 0.3% m/m, in line, and 3.1% y/y; headline PCE hit 3.6% y/y. Third-quarter GDP came in at 3.4% against 3.2% expected, while the core PCE price index slowed to 2.5% annualized from 3.3%.
Better than the consensus on both counts. New home sales slipped only 0.6% (a 4.5% drop was expected) and FHFA prices rose 0.3% m/m against 0.1%. Case-Shiller National held at +2.1% y/y. MBA purchase apps rose 4% w/w but sit 18% below last year.
| Date | Release | Result / Preview | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 279:00 AM | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller HPI · Aug S&P Cotality Case-Shiller |
National +2.1% y/y (from 1.9% in Jul), +0.3% m/m SA (consensus +0.3%). 20-City +2.7% y/y, +0.3% m/m SA. 10-City +3.6% y/y. Chicago (+6.7%) and New York (+6.2%) led; Seattle (-2.0%) was lowest. | Released |
| Tue Oct 279:00 AM | FHFA House Price Index · Aug FHFA |
+0.3% m/m SA (consensus +0.1%), +2.4% y/y. July revised to +0.2% m/m (from +0.3%). | Beat |
| Tue Oct 2710:00 AM | Conference Board Consumer Confidence · Oct Conference Board |
91.7 (consensus 81.0), +7.5 pts from 84.2 (Sep, revised). Present Situation 120.4 (+8.6); Expectations 72.6 (+6.9), the first rise after three straight declines. | Beat |
| Tue Oct 2710:00 AM | New Home Sales · Sep Census/HUD |
676K SAAR, -0.6% m/m (consensus -4.5%) from 680K (Aug, revised), -5.3% y/y. Median price $400,400, -3.9% y/y. Months’ supply 8.4 (from 8.5). | Beat |
| Wed Oct 287:00 AM | MBA Weekly Applications Survey · Wk ended Oct 23 MBA |
Composite +3.4% w/w (SA). Purchase +4% w/w, -18% y/y. Refi +3% w/w, -61% y/y; refi share 38.9% (from 39.0%). 30-year contract rate 7.37% (from 7.41%). | Released |
| Wed Oct 282:00 PM | FOMC Rate Decision · Oct Federal Reserve |
Held the target range at 3.75%-4.00%. Vote 10-2; Cook and Hammack dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. Statement describes economic activity as expanding at a strong pace (previously solid). | Released |
| Thu Oct 298:30 AM | Personal Income & Outlays / PCE · Sep BEA |
Core PCE +0.3% m/m (consensus +0.3%), +3.1% y/y. Headline PCE +0.5% m/m, +3.6% y/y. Personal income +0.2% (consensus +0.3%); spending +0.5% (consensus +0.6%). Saving rate 3.8%. | Released |
| Thu Oct 298:30 AM | GDP, Advance Estimate · 3Q BEA |
+3.4% annualized (consensus +3.2%), up from +2.2% in 2Q. PCE price index +2.1% (from 5.0%); core PCE price index +2.5% (from 3.3%). Real final sales to private domestic purchasers +4.9%. | Beat |
| Thu Oct 298:30 AM | Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims · Wk ended Oct 24 DOL |
Initial claims 194K, -1K w/w (prior week revised to 195K); 4-week average 196,750. Continuing claims 1.701M, -21K w/w; insured unemployment rate 1.1%. | Released |
| Thu Oct 2912:00 PM | Freddie Mac PMMS · Wk ended Oct 29 Freddie Mac |
30-year fixed 7.24%, -8 bps w/w (from 7.32%), +107 bps y/y (from 6.17%). Lowest level this month. | Released |
Jobs week follows the Fed. JOLTS arrives Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, and the October employment report Friday, Nov 6, alongside preliminary November Michigan sentiment. The following week brings October CPI on Tuesday, Nov 10, existing home sales Thursday, and PPI on Friday, Nov 13.
Want more? For a deeper dive on what these numbers might mean, check out the Metz Market Minute.
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