Market Minute - 4/17/2026
Nomoshkar and welcome to the Metz Market Minute for the Chrisman Commentary.
Let's start with some good news. Jobless claims came out better than expected and show the labor market under control. The waters are calming, literally in the Strait of Hormuz, as optimism about peace in Iran causes the bond market to ease a notch. Rates fell for a second week and decreased 7 BPS. We're still well above February's lows, but it's moving in the right direction. Mortgage applications finally rose for the week, but that was carried by refinances.
Mortgage purchases were down, and NAR revealed that March existing home sales were down 4%. The country was aligned, and all four regions showed the same decline. The northeast showed the biggest decrease in sales since 1999. NAR also revised their forecast for 2026 from a 14% increase in business to 4%.
That revised forecast lines up with the MBA, whose chief economist believes inflation and rates are likely to stay up for the rest of the year. The builders agree, as home builder confidence fell yet again. Non-coincidentally, dot plots and the MBA also both predict no more Fed rate cuts for the rest of the year.
That's the market in a minute, have a great week!
Extra Content
1.) We've seen foreclosures spike 7% in Q1. Scary, but elevated due to half a decade of forebearance policies kicking those cans down the road. Also worth noting that 17% of FHA and 25% of VA loans done in 2024 are now underwater. This may appear in next week's episode. Spoiler for the beta testers that read this.
2.) PPI is going to be exciting next round. It didn't really capture the Iran increases this round.
Resources
1.) Jobless claims
2.) Rates