Last week, I said the hopes and dreams were with lower labor numbers linking with better inflation numbers to avoid a rate hike. The universe listened.
Inflation, Part 1: CPI: Came in at .1%, below the .2% expectation, and now annualizing to 2.5%.
Inflation, Part 2: PPI: The real gain, came in flat (0%) versus the expected .2%. Of note, we had .7% decrease in energy-led demand for goods.
Combined, they give a much tamer inflationary strategy. That should give the Fed every excuse not to hike rates, and starts to give some opportunity for an eventual cut.
July home sales were bound to not come in happy, and existing home sales came in at 4.06M down 1.7% for the month. Redfin data already shows August performing better, with increased sales. That lines up with...
MBA Applications up by 3.6% for the week, as rates fell a solid 2BPS net for the week. The bulk of that came after the inflationary numbers.
Consumer Sentiment: Came in less rosy. We saw that fall 8% this August. While personal sentiment didn't fall so much, the expected business conditions fell 11% in the short term and 17% for the long run. It's also interesting to note that's across the political spectrum, with even Republicans showing a 19% drop in sentiment.
Old Homes: Harvard released a particularly good study on the aging home. The average home is now up to 44 years old, from an average of 28 years old back in the 90's. One in four homeowners now live in a home built before the 60s. The costs of keeping it updated are stacking up, and we're now up to $6K/year in maintenance on those homes.